Climate Change Lowlight of the Week

[marcusmarcusrc]

Michael Crichton was called yesterday to testify about global warming before the Senate Environment & Public Works committee by Senator Inhofe who wants to make decisions based on "sound science".

As discussed on realclimate.org.

What the *&#! is wrong with our government? (And yes, I realize that the government is messing up much more than just climate policy)

Comments

[kirisutogomen.livejournal.com]

I haven't read the essay since soon after it came out, so I don't remember it well. I'm also astonished to know someone who has actually read Limits to Growth. I sure haven't.

Models: yes, obviously. Modelling is an indispensable part of science. The important thing, as you say, is to be scrupulous about your assumptions. The Drake Equation is crap because it's using a bunch of parameters that are wildly difficult to estimate, and then multplying all the errors.

An underlying problem is that modeling is not taught as one of the principal methods of science. In my experience, schools stick with describing the "scientific method" of hypothesis-->experiment.

If we keep strictly to this concept of science, that if we can't run controlled, replicable experiements, it isn't science, then you're not doing science if all you're doing is constructing models and testing them against the data Nature feels like giving you.

This mostly rules out evolutionary biology, paleontology, astronomy, etc. If we insist on teaching people this bogus definition of science, don't be surprised when people criticize your work as unscientific.

Skepticism: I have no idea what you're talking about here.

Consensus: Yes. Ordinarily we have nothing but scientific consensus. Allowing equal time to every nutcase who makes a lot of noise would be a catastrophe.

I don't think that means that we shouldn't have a few rules identifying the rare circumstances in which we should be more skeptical of the scientific consensus. Any community occasionally succumbs to weird spasms of insanity; scientists are much less vulnerable than most due to the culture maintaining superior standards of intellectual honesty, but they're still human.

Limits: Like I said, I didn't read Limits to Growth. Just the title all by itself makes it difficult for me to believe your assessment. Having a long-term view and preventing problems of the more distant future isn't the same as saying, "Here comes the ceiling."