Hurricanes and NOAA

[marcusmarcusrc]

After last year's record hurricane season, NOAA released a report stating:

"Consensus Among NOAA Hurricane Researchers and Forecasters: There is consensus among NOAA hurricane researchers and forecasters that recent increases in hurricane activity are primarily the result of natural fluctuations in the tropical climate system known as the tropical multi-decadal signal."

Given that a number of NOAA researchers think that the tropical multi-decadal signal is a statistical artifact that disappears once you take into account the global temperature trends, this "consensus" announcement was vigorously debated internally, and the hurricane researchers I know were livid.

An Editor's Note has since been added:

"*EDITOR’S NOTE: This consensus in this on-line magazine story represents the views of some NOAA hurricane researchers and forecasters, but does not necessarily represent the views of all NOAA scientists. It was not the intention of this article to discount the presence of a human-induced global warming element or to attempt to claim that such an element is not present. There is a robust, on-going discussion on hurricanes and climate change within NOAA and the scientific community.

The headline and paragraph could have more clearly stated:

'Agreement Among Some NOAA Hurricane Researchers and Forecasters'

There is agreement among a number of NOAA hurricane researchers and forecasters that recent increases in hurricane activity are primarily the result of natural fluctuations in the tropical climate system known as the tropical multi-decadal signal.”

This is such a fun area of science to work in. So much politics and confusion!

the full report

Comments

[fanw.livejournal.com]

Good Lord, that's rather incendiary! I would be upset too! I mean, they might just as well have said, "There's a concensus among NOAA researchers that this whole hurricane problem will just go away if we ignore it. Tata!"

PBLTTTTHHHTTTHHH!

[marcusmarcusrc.livejournal.com]

Of course, in the near term, both groups are in agreement: the next 10 years are likely to see a lot of Atlantic hurricanes, except in El Nino years.

Then there is a divergence, where the global warming proponents say "and the # will just keep going up" whereas the multi-decadal signal people say it will eventually go down.

Of course, the leader of the multi-decadal signal people, and probably the premier hurricane expert worldwide, Dr. Gray, doesn't even believe anthropogenic global warming exists, much less that it has an impact on hurricanes. (that's not true of the whole camp, mind you)